ZF Capital > Watching The Markets

Tradecraft – Price Power

On August 11, 2010, In Good Articles, by ElfLord

CONSIDERING MY CLIENTS hire me to manage their money, the very least I can do is actually watch it. And it’s the money — or, more specifically, the markets — from where the best research emanates. A company’s fundamentals, management, sales or new products are all influential on a stock, but they’re not the stock itself. Price is the ultimate arbiter. Price is what we trade. So it’s price that you should most closely watch.

Up until fairly recently, evaluating a stock’s price action wasn’t such an easy task. In the old days, exchange employees would write prices onto chalkboards on the trading floor. The information was then manually input into crude reporting systems and eventually spewed out onto small strips of tickertape in brokerage offices around the country.

In the ’60s and ’70s, active traders frequently kept charts by hand, noting prices out of the newspaper and plotting data each night on large sheets of graph paper. One could also order charts or price data through research firms such as CRB, which would “promptly” arrive weeks later. “Day trading” just didn’t exist. (more…)

Tradecraft – Mr. Green Jeans Goes to Wall Street

On July 9, 2010, In Good Articles, by ElfLord

AS A LIFELONG CITY-DWELLER, the closest I get to agriculture is the produce section of Whole Foods Market (WFMI). So while I’m not a gardener and have spent virtually no time on a farm, I do believe those who cultivate plants and those who manage money have much in common.

Consider that both planter and money manager need to periodically prune away dead wood. Beautiful gardens aren’t simply grown, they’re continuously clipped and shaped. To raise a healthy garden, experienced horticulturists will rotate crops, clip old foliage and manage the sun. It’s not just about planting the seeds, but tending to the crop along the way.

Same goes for the market, where investment success doesn’t end with simply picking a stock. Ever wonder why most analysts are lousy traders? It turns out there’s a big difference between evaluating an investment and profitably guiding a portfolio. Call me crazy, but in my world there’s more to it than just buy, sell or hold. (more…)

Tradecraft – No News Is Great News

On May 28, 2010, In Good Articles, by ElfLord

THE STORIES THAT interest me most aren’t those found above the fold on Page 1 of The Wall Street Journal. While it might feel comfortable to invest based on something written in a newspaper or magazine, I’m paid to speculate, not to bet on sure things. And because the market doesn’t reflect the news, but rather anticipates it, traders must get used to taking positions without a good fundamental reason.

So when putting my money to work, I evaluate not only stocks themselves, but also the stories that go along with them. At issue is determining if the investment thesis, or “story,” has already been played out and picked over by the herd. Like most things in the market, it’s an imperfect science, but the general idea is that by the time the story is out, you already will have harvested your gains and moved on. Watching the media, the message boards and the market can often provide the telltale signs.

If you follow the market, it also makes sense to follow the media, since that’s where stories live and are primarily disseminated. While I try to avoid monitoring the media for investment ideas, I do keep abreast of the coverage of the stocks in my portfolio. A mention on Cavuto or a write-up in Forbes isn’t enough to prompt me to sell, but it is one sign that word is getting around. My job is to find great stocks before they make it on the cover of Barron’s. (more…)

Tradecraft – A Mind Is a Terrible Thing to Lose

On March 10, 2010, In Good Articles, by ElfLord

WATCH RUKEYSER, CAVUTO or any other investing-related television show, and you’ll notice that most prognosticators aren’t merely confident — they’re downright cocky. No matter how volatile the market might be, their forecasts are always infallible.

Although I’m usually opinionated, I’m never overconfident. In fact, I sometimes feel so completely out of touch with the market that I don’t know what to think. Sorry to disappoint you folks looking for a quick tip, but when it comes to the next move in the market, I often don’t have a clue. Considering the wild swings we’ve seen this year, perhaps in your weakest moments you can admit to the same.

As we often point out, a trader’s biggest strength isn’t necessarily finding winners, but dealing with losers. Still, feeling lost and unsure about an investment approach can be extraordinarily frustrating — and mighty expensive.

It usually starts innocently enough. A few favorite trades fall apart. Then sectors you had previously dismissed seem to spring to life virtually overnight. Your buy list gets smaller, more erratic. And the trading strategy that only a few weeks back seemed foolproof now seems foolhardy. You’re not just losing you’re lost. We’ve all been there at one point or another. (more…)

Tradecraft – Good Investors Pay Attention

On January 6, 2010, In Good Articles, by ElfLord

A MARKET WATCHER should watch the market.

I suppose I could fix my car, do my own dentistry or reshingle my roof. But since I have neither the expertise nor the time to devote to these critical tasks, I hire professionals to do these jobs for me.

The same holds true for managing money. Just because you can trade for pennies on the web doesn’t mean you necessarily should. The markets aren’t rocket science, but they can be a full-time job. And while most people are perfectly capable of managing their own account, many simply don’t have the interest or the time to do it properly.

In investing, picking the jockey is almost as tough as picking the horse. There are literally hundreds of thousands of mutual funds, financial planners, account executives and investment advisers eager to grab their 1%. Where do you begin?

A good accountant is invaluable, but insufficient — after all, you’ve got to make money before you pretty it up for Uncle Sam. And while the best stock analysts might be able to tell you how many Huggies Wal-Mart (WMT) is going to sell in the third quarter, what can they tell you about improving your portfolio’s bottom line?

While I can appreciate the value of an attentive financial planner, I find that far too many are wet behind the ears. Somewhere along the line, their version of “analysis” became hypothetical, pretax profits based on a 12% annualized return from stocks. We see how well that turned out. (more…)

Tradecraft – Eyes Wide Open

On October 23, 2009, In Good Articles, by ElfLord

SOME PEOPLE WON’T miss an episode of “The Practice” but have no idea what their 401(k) has done over the past six months. And there are those who bought Pfizer (PFE) after hearing Leno make a Viagra joke and haven’t looked at the stock since. They know who Richard Hatch is but couldn’t tell you where the Nasdaq closed last week.

These people, many of them college educated and extremely affluent, play the stock market as you play the lottery: Buy a ticket and hope for the best. The market interests them only up to the point that they actually have to put in some effort. And for such people, “buy and hold” has become “buy and blame.” After all…it isn’t their fault they lost money. It’s the hedge funds’, the analysts’ or Alan Greenspan’s.

As we’ve written before, trading, or “active investing” as it’s now called within politically correct circles, is first and foremost an exercise in observation. In order to see the truth, you must first be willing to open your eyes. Despite the misconception that traders pull the trigger from bell to bell, I spend most of my time watching, not making transactions. (more…)

Tradecraft – It’s All in the Timing

On October 12, 2009, In Good Articles, by ElfLord

WITH CISCO SYSTEMS (CSCO) down some 70% from its all-time high, analysts are falling all over themselves to divine the next move for the beleaguered stock. At $19 a share and a $140 billion market cap, it isn’t exactly cheap. Some think Cisco is attractive at current levels. Others think it’s a buy way down in the low teens, and still others wouldn’t touch it until the single digits. As always, two sides make a market, and nobody knows the future.

Like my well-pedigreed colleagues, I too have a price at which I’d like to buy Cisco: $81.82 a share. In fact, I would love Cisco at $81.82, its all-time high. I’d adore it. I’d be all over it.

Seem strange? Perhaps. After all, if Cisco ever got back up to the high it reached last March, plenty of people — especially those sitting on losing positions — would sell, anxious to recoup their losses or protect profits before the stock took another dive. It’s what I hear when I talk to prospective clients about reallocating some of their assets away from tech. Everyone is waiting for a bounce.

That thinking is understandable, but flawed: The truth is that if the stock ever did rebound back to its old highs, it would be a signal to increase, not decrease, your exposure. It’s a question of timing, and from baseball cards to Brocade Communications (BRCD), trading is all in the timing. (more…)

ZF Capital

Tradecraft – Price Power

Tradecraft – Mr. Green Jeans Goes to Wall Street

Tradecraft – No News Is Great News

Tradecraft – A Mind Is a Terrible Thing to Lose

Tradecraft – Good Investors Pay Attention

Tradecraft – Eyes Wide Open

Tradecraft – It’s All in the Timing

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