Tradecraft – Let’s Get Technical

AT ONE POINT OR another, we’ve all gotten Web or direct-mail advertisements promising outsized gains from trading systems using technical analysis. The claims are always enticing, since boasts of mediocre performance wouldn’t elicit much response.

But think about it: If someone really had an airtight, foolproof method of consistently making money in the market, why on earth would they share it with you for a mere $39 a month?

That being said, I do think technical analysis is inherently superior to more traditional investing methods. Technical analysis is focused on analyzing the market itself rather than other fundamental factors we assume will influence the market. And because markets are generally not chaotic, but rather tend to move in trends, I believe the best indicator of XYZ is often XYZ itself.

It wasn’t too long ago when technical analysis was dismissed as pure voodoo. That’s changed in recent years. Not only has the advent of computer technology allowed price charting to become far quicker and more cost effective, but the limitations of traditional fundamental analysis have been evidenced during both the late 1990s boom and the early 2000s bust. (more…)

Tradecraft – Don’t Buy Me

“IT’S NOT WHETHER you win or lose, but how you play the game.”

Most of us understand that old saw to be about style — about winning or losing with equal aplomb and sportsmanship. But to a trader, it’s a lesson in technique. It reminds us that whether you win or lose is a function of how you play the game.

I can’t say it often enough: It isn’t what you trade, but how you trade, that ultimately determines success. And nowhere can this be seen better than in the case of energy giant Enron (ENE), whose spectacular 99% decline has left more than a few investors out in the cold.

Most pundits would suggest that Enron’s woes first became apparent in mid-October, when the company took a $1 billion charge and reduced its shareholders’ equity by $1.2 billion as a result of a number of questionable off-balance-sheet partnerships. But from a trader’s perspective, the problems for Enron and its investors actually started much earlier. While Enron’s collapse was stunning, good trading technique could’ve limited the damage to investors’ bottom line.

Many are now blaming the company for their losses, but regardless of any alleged corporate wrongdoing, following a trading discipline would’ve prevented a position in Enron from hurting your portfolio too badly. That’s the essence of investing. You win a few, you lose a few, you keep on fighting. (more…)

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One of the best books on trading techniques that I have ever read. It is based on stage analysis, that is, looking at charts to determine whether a stock is going up, topping, declining, or bottoming out. The author stresses using stage analysis not only on individual stocks, but also on industry sectors as well as indexes like the Dow and Nasdaq.

The philosophy is based on the view that nearly all stocks experience four price stages: accumulation (stage 1), uptrending (stage 2), top area (stage 3), and downtrending (stage 4). Therefore, an investor, has a high probability of success if he or she enters the cycle just before the stock moves to stage 2. Then he explains how to select a stock by simply studying its price/volume chart and how to time your entry. (more…)

Victor Sperandeo says that if there were a Hall of Fame for trading he wouldn’t be in it but he sees himself as a career pro who consistently performs at an elite level year after year. In fact consistent performance is his central theme, which he says requires not only a successful approach to trading but to life itself. He delves into this in the second part of the book that is dedicated to the psychological approach.

The main topics in this book include: Preservation of capital, consistent profitability, technical analysis and trading rules. He tells how to spot a trend and discusses technical analysis. How to spot the tops and bottoms in any market. There is also a lot of detail about economics and what makes the system tick, which as he says he didn’t learn in school. Moving averages, booms and busts, and how to manage risk and have a good business philosophy for consistant success are also part of this well written book of trader knowledge. He covers a great deal of useful information in a very compact form that is actually easy to read and understand. (more…)

Tradecraft – The Way of the Trader

FROM earnings estimates to research reports, most investors aren’t just informed. They’re saturated. There are literally hundreds of columnists, money managers and message-board contributors, all eager to tell you where the market may or may not be headed. And for every bullish voice, there’s usually an accompanying bearish one as well. After all, two sides make a market.

But all the Web’s information overload encourages most investors to focus on the wrong question — whether to buy, sell or hold a stock. Now, you wouldn’t think this would be such a complicated problem. After all, pick a stock and you’ve got at least even odds that it will appreciate. In fact, you’ve got better than even odds, since the market has historically demonstrated an upward bias. So then why do so many people lose money buying individual stocks, and lose even more money trading them?

The answer is because trading is a matter of technique, not simple prognostication. What has been missing from this seemingly endless (and often mind-numbing dialog) about the market’s next move is frank discussion about the craft of trading. (more…)

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