Tradecraft – The Loser’s Racket

REGARDLESS OF YOUR LEVEL OF skill, education or experience, invest in the markets long enough and you’ll eventually encounter a losing streak that makes you wish the opening bell never rang. Speculation is not a savings account, and losses, oftentimes serious ones, will for a time plague even the most pedigreed of portfolios.

So although Bill Miller is still heralded as one of the best portfolio managers around, he too was pummeled by the brutal bear market. An investment in his Legg Mason Value Trust (LMVTX) dropped some 40% from 2000 through early 2003.

Or take legendary portfolio manager Stanley Druckenmiller. In early 2000 he left George Soros’ Quantum Fund after bad technology bets erased almost $3 billion — more than 20% of the hedge fund’s assets. (more…)

Tradecraft – Look in the Mirror

OH HOW I WISH that each week I could come up with a list of investments guaranteed to rise. You’d make money, I’d look like a genius and everybody would be happy. If only it were that easy.

Because while the point is to buy stocks that go up, the reality is that no matter how good your research is not every trade is a winner. There’s no certainty in speculation, and as we often point out sometimes you’ve got to throw a hundred casts just to get a nibble, let alone a substantial catch.

As we wrote a few months back, the emotional strain in trading can be downright debilitating. And while losing money and dealing with uncertainty is tough, I’ve found the most difficult aspect also to be the most important: taking responsibility for your own actions in the market.

Like many elements of trading, it’s much easier said than done. The fact is that when we lose money in the market it hurts. And what makes trading losses especially painful is the knowledge that it’s our action — or inaction — that prompted the loss. In a free market, nobody forces us to buy or sell anything. To that end, win or lose, when it comes to our portfolios, we’ve got nobody to blame but ourselves. (more…)

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Tradecraft – Do the Right Thing

AMERICANS MAKE dangerous, delusional and self-destructive decisions on a regular basis. Just look at the statistics: Plenty of us smoke, overeat, unbuckle our seatbelts, use drugs and have unprotected sex, just to name a few acts of random idiocy performed by seemingly intelligent and well-educated people every day.

Here’s the thing: Sooner or later, we pay for our stupidity. Whether it’s cancer, a car crash, a heart attack or herpes, most people who tempt fate end up losing. George Burns is the exception, not the rule.

And so it goes in our portfolios. More than any other endeavor, trading comes down to a series of choices made over time. The best advice I can come up with is also the simplest: Do the right thing.

Of course, that’s easier said than done. Navigating our place within the financial markets is quite a challenge.

Most of us follow a religion, or at least have a general philosophy that governs our actions. Indeed, from Christians and Muslims to atheists and anarchists, most of us have strong feelings about how best to approach the world. In the markets, some advocate growth investing while others put their faith in value. Some buy only large companies while others swear by the small caps. Technical traders trust only the charts while most purists follow the fundamentals. (more…)

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