ZF Capital

Many traders believe that the aim of a market analyst is to forecast future prices. The amateurs in most fields ask for forecasts, while professionals simply manage information and make decisions based on probabilities. Take medicine, for example. A patient is brought to an emergency room with a knife sticking out of his chest– and the anxious family members have only two questions: “Will he survive?” and “When can he go home?” They ask the doctor for a forecast.

But the doctor is not forecasting– he is taking care of problems as they emerge. His first job is to prevent the patient from dying from shock, and so he gives him pain-killers and starts an intravenous drip to replace lost blood. Then he removes the knife and sutures damaged organs. After that, he has to watch against infection. He monitors the trend of a patient’s health and takes measures to prevent complications. He is managing– not forecasting. When a family begs for a forecast, he may give it to them, but its practical value is low.

To make money trading, you do not need to forecast the future. You have to extract information from the market and find out whether bulls or bears are in control. You need to measure the strength of the dominant market group and decide how likely the current trend is to continue. You need to practice conservative money management aimed at long-term survival and profit accumulation. You must observe how your mind works and avoid slipping into greed or fear. A trader who does all of this will succeed more than any forecaster.

– Alexander Elder, Trading for a Living

When the market gives no clear signals to buy or sell short, many beginners start squinting at their screens, trying to recognize trading signals. A good signal jumps at you from the chart and grabs you by the face– you can’t miss it! It pays to wait for such signals instead of forcing trades when the market offers you none. Amateurs look for challenges; professionals look for easy trades. Losers get high from the action; the pros look for the best odds.

– Alexander Elder, Come Into My Trading Room

Markets consist of huge crowds of people watching the same trading vehicles, mesmerized by upticks and downticks. Think of a crowd at a concert or in a movie theater. When the show begins, the crowd gets emotionally in gear and develops an amorphous but powerful mass mind, laughing or weeping together. A mass mind also emerges in the markets, only here it is more malignant. Instead of laughing or weeping, the crowd seeks each trader’s private psychological weakness and hits him in that spot.

– Alexander Elder, Come Into My Trading Room

Trading a small account is like flying an airplane at treetop level. You have no room to maneuver, no time to think. The slightest slip of attention, a piece of bad luck, a freaky branch sticking out into the air- you crash and burn. The higher you fly, the more time you have to find your way out of trouble. Flying at low altitude is tough enough for experts, but deadly for beginners. A trader needs to gain altitude, get more equity, and buy some space for maneuvers.

– Alexander Elder, Come Into My Trading Room

Beginners become emotional when they trade, but if you want to survive and succeed, you must develop discipline. The moment you become aware of feeling fear or joy, use that as a signal to tighten your discipline and follow your system. You developed that system when the markets were closed and you felt calm. Now it gives you your only chance of survival and success in the markets.

– Alexander Elder, Come Into My Trading Room

You do not have to be more intelligent than other traders – only better disciplined.

– Alexander Elder

You need to base your trades on a carefully prepared trading plan and not jump in response to price changes. I pays to write down your plan. You need to know exactly under what conditions you will enter and exit a trade. Do not make decisions on the spur of the moment, when you are vulnerable to being sucked into the couwd.

You can succeed in trading only when you think and act as an individual. The weakest part of any trading system is the trader himself. Traders fail when they trade without a plan or deviate from their plans. Plans are created by reasoning individuals. Impulsive trades are made by sweaty group members.

– Alexander Elder, Trading for a Living