Thought of the Day (October 8, 2009)

Confidence, in short, means knowing you’re going to win. It isn’t a magic quality which once possessed can never be lost. To be sure, regular winners will have an inner conviction that they must win over time, if they play to the rules. This is partly an inherent state of mind and partly the result of long experience of seeing the rules working. But no one but a fool is convinced they can win just by playing. You win by doing your homework better, following the rules more closely, and acting more consistently then the other players. Winning gives you confidence and confidence helps you win. The closer you get to only trading when you’re confident you’ll win, the higher your win rate and your confidence will be.

– John Percival, The Way of the Dollar

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Thought of the Day (October 7, 2009)

In fact, everybody is a success. That startling declaration rests on the fact that unconsciously, we basically get what we want. The primary problem is that once obtained, we realize that what we got is not what we truly wanted, resulting in boredom, escapism, mysterious fatigue, migraines, and the much-dreaded ’midlife crisis.’ We’re pretty good at getting what we think we want in life; the real problem is ascertaining what it is that we really want.

The unconscious is a compelling force within the essence of our ego; it operates on a level that is invisible and all-powerful, such that growing up intellectually does not mean we necessarily grow up emotionally. Some people overcome their infantile fantasies and others do not, resulting in the normal and the neurotic – even though neither person any longer consciously demands the impossible. Excessively blaming parents is a hallmark of the latter.

– James Dines, Mass Psychology

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Tradecraft – Profiting From the Blahs

IN APRIL of 1999, The Matrix was in theaters, Columbine was in the headlines and the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near 10500. Now fast forward to present day, where the movies and news have all changed, but the Dow is still hovering near 10500. Of course, there’s been plenty of movement this way and that in the meantime, but if you’ve been a long-term investor in the Dow stocks, your money has been dead for over three years. Sometimes stocks go up, sometimes they go down. But often they go nowhere at all.

A technique called “systematic writing” is one way to make money in trendless times. It’s a neutral to bullish strategy that requires no upfront investment, has limited downside and can be highly profitable in times when there’s no clear direction to the market. It’s also a great way to dip your toe into options trading and begin integrating income-oriented strategies into your tool kit of technique.

First, a quick review of some basic options terminology: A stock option is the right to either buy or sell 100 shares of a stock at a predetermined price (the “strike price”) within a specific period of time in the future, any time before what’s known as the “expiration date.” A “call” option represents the right to buy, while a “put” represents the right to sell. Buying an “XYZ Sept. 50 call” gives you the right to buy 100 shares of XYZ at a price of $50 a share anytime before the end of the third Friday in September. Buying the put would allow you to sell 100 shares of XYZ at $50 a share anytime before that date.

Many sophisticated stock jocks are familiar with buying both puts and calls. Systematic writing, however, doesn’t involve buying options, but selling them. In the options world, “writing” means “selling” — and it all starts with a put. (more…)

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Thought of the Day (October 6, 2009)

Many investors would be successful were it not for the forces of greed. Although many positions are correctly entered at the appropriate time, they are often kept too long once they show profits. Objectives are ignored, and the basics of rational trading fall by the wayside. There are many investors who would otherwise be successful. The problem here is one of poor discipline.

– Jake Bernstein, The Investor’s Quotient

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Thought of the Day (October 5, 2009)

If you think you have all the answers to investing, you are creating a formula for disappointment, if not outright failure. Even if we identify a set of investment principles, such as these, we cannot apply them to an unchanging universe of investments – or an unchanging economic or political environment. Everything is in a constant state of change. In today’s booming market, it is easy for investors, after a series of successes, to become complacent in their own knowledge and abilities. But this sense of “security” is dangerous – and false – producing a cocksure approach to investing that will eventually lead to disappointment, if not disaster.

– Gary Moore, Spiritual Investments

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WALK INTO ANY casino, and the first thing you will do is exchange your hard-earned hundreds for a pile of worthless plastic chips. It’s a distraction meant to insure that, as you gamble, you aren’t paying too much attention to the dollar amount being won or lost.

And while traders aren’t gamblers per se, a similar thing happens in the market. In the real world, cash is a scarce and valuable commodity. But once the check is written and sent to Schwab, hard-earned money becomes, at least in our minds, a stack of chips, ready to be anted up at the nearest table.

And when a click or keystroke can mean thousands of dollars, a fully funded brokerage account feels like Harrah’s on your hard drive. From the craps table to Comverse Technology (CMVT), it’s much easier to lose big money when you’re not thinking about the money.

So no matter at what level you play the game, you’ve got to get in the habit of keeping it real. In my experience, the best traders aren’t gun-slinging gamblers, but pragmatic realists. They’re better at seeing the world the way it is rather then the way they’d like it to be. (more…)

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Thought of the Day (October 4, 2009)

Many short-term players view trading as a form of gambling. Without planning or discipline, they throw money at the market. The occasional big score reinforces this easy money attitude but sets them up for ultimate failure. Without defensive rules, insiders easily feed off these losers and send them off to other hobbies.

– Alan Farley

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