Thought of the Day (November 15, 2009)

The typical trader will do most anything to avoid creating definition and rules because he does not want to take responsibility for the results of his trading. If he knows exactly what he is going to do and under what conditions, then he would have something by which to measure his performance, thus making himself accountable to himself. This is exactly what most traders don’t want to do, preferring instead to keep their relationship with the market somewhat mysterious.

This creates a real psychological paradox for traders, because the only way to learn how to trade effectively is to make oneself accountable by creating structure: but, with accountability comes responsibility.

– Mark Douglas, The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes

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Thought of the Day (November 14, 2009)

If a speculator is correct half the time he is hitting a good average. Even being right three or four times out of ten should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong.

– Bernard Baruch

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Thought of the Day (November 13, 2009)

Positions either perform, or they get eliminated. End of story.

– Gordon Gekko

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Tradecraft – It’s All in the Follow-Through

LIKE A NEW LOVE, the beginning of a journey or a fresh hand of cards, the first trade in a particular stock is exciting and seemingly rife with possibilities. But the toughest and most important trade you make is actually the second one. Happy relationships, smooth travel or winning blackjack all require skillful reaction to changing circumstances — and so does successful trading. What matters is the all-important follow-through. In every market and with every product, managing a trade is even more important then making it in the first place.

Anybody can buy a stock. It’s how you manage the fallout that matters. Lots could happen: The economy could slump. Or interest rates could rise. The company’s sales could falter, or its CEO could get run over by a bus. This is the problem with following the fundamentals. It means concerning yourself with things that are far out of your control.

What really matters ultimately is the price action of the stock itself. When you buy XYZ at $50, there are only a few possible outcomes. XYZ could go up, down or go nowhere at all. We will briefly outline what I believe to be the time-tested rules for what to do next.

Let’s assume XYZ rises to $55, whether thanks to prayer, skill or just plain old luck. Even in a tough economy with soggy stock indexes, there’s always a bull market somewhere. You’ve got a winner on you’re hands, so forget the headlines. You’re up five points on XYZ…what’s your next trade? (more…)

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Thought of the Day (November 12, 2009)

The only real mistake is the one from which we learn nothing.

– John Powell

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Thought of the Day (November 11, 2009)

As the playing field is leveled for investors and trading professionals alike, technocrats are rapidly losing their competitive edge. Soon everyone will have the same technological edge in the financial world. Inner space is now the new frontier. As a result, the keys to financial success are rapidly shifting from the left-brain to the right-brain – from 80 percent technology and rational solutions, to 80 percent mind games, intuition, mental discipline and the techniques of mass psychological “warfare.”

– Paul Farrell

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Tradecraft – Don’t Buy Me

“IT’S NOT WHETHER you win or lose, but how you play the game.”

Most of us understand that old saw to be about style — about winning or losing with equal aplomb and sportsmanship. But to a trader, it’s a lesson in technique. It reminds us that whether you win or lose is a function of how you play the game.

I can’t say it often enough: It isn’t what you trade, but how you trade, that ultimately determines success. And nowhere can this be seen better than in the case of energy giant Enron (ENE), whose spectacular 99% decline has left more than a few investors out in the cold.

Most pundits would suggest that Enron’s woes first became apparent in mid-October, when the company took a $1 billion charge and reduced its shareholders’ equity by $1.2 billion as a result of a number of questionable off-balance-sheet partnerships. But from a trader’s perspective, the problems for Enron and its investors actually started much earlier. While Enron’s collapse was stunning, good trading technique could’ve limited the damage to investors’ bottom line.

Many are now blaming the company for their losses, but regardless of any alleged corporate wrongdoing, following a trading discipline would’ve prevented a position in Enron from hurting your portfolio too badly. That’s the essence of investing. You win a few, you lose a few, you keep on fighting. (more…)

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