BANKING IS THE MOST competitive and lucrative business in the world. It always has been. But here’s something you might not realize: Whether you’re a teacher, an executive, a construction worker or a salesman, the reality is that you are a banker, too — in charge of thousands of dollars of liquid assets every month.

Nowadays we think of banks simply as electronic accounts on which we can draw checks and earn interest. But historically, banks’ main purpose has been to protect assets. Years ago, one needed a local bank to store valuables in a safe deposit box, and depended on a bank to earn steady (if unspectacular) returns that would at least keep pace with inflation. Despite the once-per-generation stock market mania that sweeps over America, investors historically have been far more concerned with holding on to their wealth than with striking it rich with their investments. Rightfully so.

Before you can invest, you must save. And regardless of what the market does over the next few months, I predict the Depression-era savings mentality I first wrote about a couple of months ago will make a far bigger comeback than most people realize. The truth of the matter is that, right now, as much as it hurts to admit it, most people aren’t investors as much as they are aggressive savers — willing to take risk, but on a much more limited scale. And although stocks have historically been the highest-returning asset class over the long haul, for the first time in memory investors are unwilling to stick around to see if history repeats itself. (more…)

Thought of the Day (January 7, 2010)

As a trader, you must be willing to create and develop your own unique style which works for you. Imitators are often not successful in art or trading. They do not possess the same personality as the originator, and therefore, cannot understand or believe in the trading method. Trading is not just an understanding of the market but and understanding of your method and how you work with it.

– Michael Douglas, Trading in the Zone

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Thought of the Day (January 6, 2010)

I think one reason why so many people try to pick tops and bottoms is that they want to prove to the world how smart they are. Think about winning rather than being a hero. Forget trying to judge trading success by how close you can come to picking major tops and bottoms, but rather by how well you can pick individual trades with merit based on favorable risk/return situations and a good percentage of winners. Go for consistency on a trade-to-trade basis, not perfect trades.

– Jack Schwager, The New Market Wizards

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Tradecraft – Good Investors Pay Attention

A MARKET WATCHER should watch the market.

I suppose I could fix my car, do my own dentistry or reshingle my roof. But since I have neither the expertise nor the time to devote to these critical tasks, I hire professionals to do these jobs for me.

The same holds true for managing money. Just because you can trade for pennies on the web doesn’t mean you necessarily should. The markets aren’t rocket science, but they can be a full-time job. And while most people are perfectly capable of managing their own account, many simply don’t have the interest or the time to do it properly.

In investing, picking the jockey is almost as tough as picking the horse. There are literally hundreds of thousands of mutual funds, financial planners, account executives and investment advisers eager to grab their 1%. Where do you begin?

A good accountant is invaluable, but insufficient — after all, you’ve got to make money before you pretty it up for Uncle Sam. And while the best stock analysts might be able to tell you how many Huggies Wal-Mart (WMT) is going to sell in the third quarter, what can they tell you about improving your portfolio’s bottom line?

While I can appreciate the value of an attentive financial planner, I find that far too many are wet behind the ears. Somewhere along the line, their version of “analysis” became hypothetical, pretax profits based on a 12% annualized return from stocks. We see how well that turned out. (more…)

Thought of the Day (January 5, 2010)

Many inexperienced investors somehow think the market today is very different. Some maintain it is more volatile. Others believe because it is dominated by institutions, many of the old methods don’t work anymore.

Still others feel that with so much information available, everything is known and already discounted in the price of stocks. Stocks, as a result, are efficient, they feel, so attempts at stock selection are destined to fail.

However, my experience is that precious little has changed. The same old things happen in the market, cycle after cycle; it’s just that the players are different.

– William O’Neil, How to Make Money in Stocks

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Thought of the Day (January 4, 2010)

Some people turn to gurus in search of a strong leader. They look for a parent-like omniscient provider. As a friend once said, “The walk with their umbilical cords in hand, looking for a place to plug them in.” A smart promoter provides such a receptacle, for a fee.

The public wants gurus, and new gurus will come. As an intelligent trader, you must realize that in the long run, no guru is going to make you rich. You have to work on that yourself.

– Alexander Elder, Trading for a Living

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Tradecraft – On Golden Bond

IN THE LATE 1990S, the equity culture reigned supreme. Employees wanted stock options, CEOs got ‘em by the boatload, and nothing seemed more lucrative than owning a piece of corporate America.

While the market has swooned, the public fascination with stocks as an asset class has barely budged. Even after another tough year in equities, by and large, stock ownership is still seen as the golden goose. Fund flows have slowed, but make no mistake: The herd is still in stocks.

Meanwhile, precious few have any indication of what’s been going on in the bond market, which continues an unprecedented bull run. Yes, the stock market has rallied from the lows of late July, but I would suggest the huge move we’ve seen in bond prices is the real capital-markets story since last Sept. 11.

As regular readers of this column know, I first started talking about bonds and the importance of portfolio income more than a year ago. Yet even given the dramatic outperformance of fixed-income securities since then, most investors are still apathetic at best. Even the recent introduction of bond ETFs hasn’t encouraged a more active approach to this oft-misunderstood asset class. (more…)

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