Thought of the Day (February 6, 2010)

There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.

– Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

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Tradecraft – There’s No Bubble in Bonds

THIS JUST IN: You want to be long in a bull market. When a bull is running, stocks enjoy long tradable advances, not one-day jumps. Shares post gains in the triple digits, rather than the single digits, and they tend to move as a group. Think back to 1998 or 1999: It didn’t much matter which tech stock you bought — the majority of them went up and went up big. A rising tide lifts all boats. This is the nature of bull markets.

These days, the rising tide continues to be in bonds and other income-oriented instruments. We’ve been talking about bonds for quite a long time here, most recently in January. Although I admit that I’ve been repeating myself on this issue, I also know that this is the nature of bull markets: They move in trends, and trends often last a lot longer than most people expect.

The rise in bonds, and their continued outperformance relative to stocks, has been so dramatic that many market players are speculating that we’re in the midst of a bubble. But from my perspective, it’s not a bubble at all. It’s simply a bull market. (more…)

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Thought of the Day (February 5, 2010)

There is a good measure of self-knowledge required to choose the proper investment course. It has even been postulated that many small investors in the stock market, without knowing it, secretly want to lose. They jump in with high hopes – but feeling vaguely guilty. Guilty over ‘gambling’ with the family’s money, guilty over trying to get ‘something for nothing,’ or guilty over plunging in without really having done much research or analysis. Then they punish themselves, for these or other sins, by selling out, demoralized, at a loss.

– Andrew Tobias, The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need

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Thought of the Day (February 4, 2010)

He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.

– Sun Tzu

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Thought of the Day (February 3, 2010)

There is only one valid reason for trading the markets, just as there is only one valid reason for being a psychologist, a dancer, or an architect: because it is your calling, the arena that best draws on one’s talents and passion for self-development.

– Brett Steenbarger, The Psychology of Trading

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Tradecraft – Managing the Manager

MANY INVESTORS, ESPECIALLY those with significant sums, prefer money managers to oversee their assets. While there are some advantages — namely more control over your tax liability — the problem with separately managed accounts is that, from what I’ve observed, very few are actually managed. So even if you decide not to manage your money, you might need to take some steps to manage your manager.

Let’s define our terms. “Managing” an account doesn’t mean constantly trading it. In fact, one of the primary, yet oft-overlooked, responsibilities of an asset manager is to make sure a client’s portfolio matches his particular risk tolerance. This is usually done when the account is set up, but often stops there. The truth is that this should be an ongoing process.

Like many elements of investing, the concept of “risk tolerance” is often made a heck of a lot more complicated than it need be. Instead of actually focusing on hard numbers, advisers toss around vague descriptions of how much risk they plan to take. Let’s be frank: What exactly does being “aggressive” mean, anyway? (more…)

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Thought of the Day (February 2, 2010)

Investors spend most of their time deciding what stock to buy. They spend little if any time thinking about when and under what circumstances their stock should be sold. This is a serious mistake.

– William O’Neill, 24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success

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