Thought of the Day (April 6, 2010)

Most fields of human endeavor have rules, yardsticks and professional bodies to enforce discipline. No matter how independent you feel, there is always some agency looking over your shoulder. If a doctor in private practice starts writing too many prescriptions for pain killers, he’ll soon hear from the health department.

Markets impose no restrictions, as long as you have enough equity. Adding to losing positions is similar to overprescribing narcotics, but nobody will stop you. As a matter of fact. other market participants want you to be undisciplined and impulsive. That makes it easier for them to get your money. Your defense against self-destructiveness is discipline. You have to set up your own rules and follow them in order to prevent self-sabotage.

Discipline means designing, testing, and following your system. It means learning to enter and exit in response to predefined signals rather than jumping in and out on a whim. It means doing the right thing, not the easy thing.

– Alexander Elder, Come Into My Trading Room

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A POPULAR BUSINESS cable show on which I appear regularly has launched a segment called “Stock of the Week.” The premise: Each pundit names a stock he or she thinks could rise over the next seven days. Viewers love it. Nothing bumps ratings like the promise of quick, easy money.

I’m always preaching the gospel of absolute return. The truth is, a quick pop isn’t the best way to achieve one.

It’s hard to convince most people that they don’t want a quick 10% jump in one of their holdings. But it’s true. The best trades — that is, the ones that tend to be the most profitable — don’t occur over a few days, but over months. They aren’t knee-jerk reactions to an earnings report or a TV tout. Steady, silent price action defines a trend at work.

My philosophy starts with the notion that the market isn’t chaotic. It moves in trends, most of which unfold over time and persist longer than most people think. Therefore, the smartest thing an investor can do is trade with the trend. This means following the market, not fighting it. (more…)

Thought of the Day (April 5, 2010)

Speculators who “go broke” are usually those who fail to devote as much time to studying the subject of speculation as they devote to risking of an equal sum of money in their own business. These individuals will seldom admit that their ignorance is responsible for their losses. They prefer to accuse “Wall Street” and “bears” of having cheated them out of their money in some mysterious fashion. They fail to realize that no profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than successful speculation.

– Robert Rhea, The Dow Theory

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Thought of the Day (April 4, 2010)

Participants in the market may well be gambling. If you don’t have a method (i.e., and edge), then trading is every bit as much a gamble as betting in the casinos. But with a method, trading — or for that matter, even blackjack — becomes a business rather than gambling.

Fortunately for traders, whereas the casinos can bar players because they become too proficient, the market has no way of eliminating the skillful traders (other than behaving in a manner that seems to confound the greatest number of people the greatest amount of time). Therefore, if you can devise a method to beat the market, no exchange can come to you and say, “We’ve noticed that you’re making too much money. You can’t trade here anymore.”

Once you have a method, you still need money management to prevent an adverse streak from taking you out of the game. It is critical to keep in mind that even if you have the edge, you can still lose all your money. Therefore, the bet or trade size must be small enough to keep the probability of such an event very low.

– Jack Schwager, The New Market Wizards

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Thought of the Day (April 3, 2010)

There are certain time periods when the most important factor in your trading– you, the human being– is nowhere near 100 percent. These are the times you should just consider getting out of the market.

The times that almost predict certain disaster are (1) when you are going through a divorce or separation from a significant person, (2) when a significant person in your life dies or is in the hospital, (3) when a child is born, (4) when you move your home or office, (5) when you are psychologically exhausted or burnt out, and (6) when you are so excited about the market that you see your position doubling overnight– even when it hasn’t moved. These are probably periods when you should just close down all your active positions.

– Van Tharp, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom

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ASSET ALLOCATION IS frequently cited as the main determinant of a portfolio’s overall return. And for many investors and advisers alike, this has become the argument for a static, if not a completely passive, approach to portfolio management. These folks allocate some assets to stocks, some to bonds and one year later see if they’ve made any money.

In my world, however, a portfolio isn’t a still-life — it’s a moving image. Because the market changes, so too should a portfolio.

But it’s a messy affair. At any given moment, there are positions I’m on the verge of cutting, others I’m considering doubling. There are sweet gains and heart-breaking losses. And sometimes stocks get shot, positions implode and ideas that seemed foolproof just days earlier have to be trashed. That’s the business I’m in. I win some, I lose some, and if I’m lucky I get out alive having made some money along the way. It isn’t sushi — it’s more like succotash. (more…)

Thought of the Day (April 2, 2010)

On Wall Street, analysts are the intelligence-gathering arm of the investor. They are under their own form of pressure to perform. In theory, the analysts’ job is to find good stocks for clients. But that theory is wrong. Don’t get suckered into the idea that the analysts’ first job to make money for you. It is not. The analysts’ primary job is to be a supporter of their brokerage firm’s investment banking activities. Their second job is to keep the institutional investors happy. Retail customers like you come in a distant third.

– Peter Siris, Guerrilla Investing

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