MORE THAN A good broker or high-speed quotes, more than a hot stock pick or an inside tip, the biggest and most influential asset a trader has is a clearly defined strategy. That is, a simple, no-nonsense way of focusing on what counts most in the markets: allocating assets and structuring a portfolio.

Market strategy, like a Hollywood pitch, can be boiled down to a few simple sentences: “Heavy into Internet stocks with some newer positions in big drugs, all with tight stops;” or, “Buying munis while holding cash and a few focused hard-asset plays.” The strategy itself, however, is less relevant than having one in the first place.

Much to the chagrin of the well-educated economist or Armani-clad analyst, a strategy will often employ seemingly incompatible ideas that, in theory, shouldn’t work together. For example, at various times over the past few years, bonds have risen with gold, stocks and floating-rate funds. These are combinations that on the surface don’t seem to make much sense. (more…)

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Thought of the Day (April 20, 2010)

Every human being who reaches the age of understanding of the purpose of money wishes for it. Wishing will not bring riches. But desiring riches with a state of mind that becomes an obsession, then planning definite ways and means to acquire riches, and backing those plans with persistence with does not recognize failure, will bring riches.

– Napoleon Hill, Think & Grow Rich

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Thought of the Day (April 19, 2010)

Raise your eyes from the keyboard and think about two goals– to learn to trade and to make money. Which comes first and which comes second? Stop killing yourself trying to make a lot of money in a hurry. Learn to trade, and the money will follow. An intelligent horse trainer does not overload a young horse. Training comes first, pulling heavy loads comes later.

– Alexander Elder, Come Into My Trading Room

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Tradecraft – The Wall Street Rodeo

JUST LIKE THE animal for which it’s named, a real bull market will do its darndest to shake anybody off its back. And although the corner of Wall and Broad isn’t a stop on the rodeo circuit just yet, the concept of bull riding is the same nevertheless: Get on and hang on for as long as possible. But as every cowboy can attest, investors should be prepared for the inevitable fall as well. Lord knows we’ll all get bucked off eventually.

So whether it’s hard assets or international stocks, I start with the mentality that in my portfolio, nothing is too sacred to sell. Some people fall in love with favorite holdings, but for me stocks are just pieces of paper. When a bull kicks me off its back, my focus isn’t to avoid a fall but a broken neck. And regardless of whether I’m selling at a profit or a loss, the challenge is to do it in the most strategic way the market will allow.

As even a novice investor will attest, buying a stock is easy; it’s selling that’s undoubtedly the much harder trade. As regular readers know, I’ve long advocated the use of stop-loss orders, set below the current market price, as the best method for getting out. Investors use a percentage decline or place the stops below a particular level of support. Of course, these techniques work only if investors are disciplined enough to follow them. Sell-stops are an effective way of preserving a position while at the same time reducing risk. I don’t sell for the heck of it, but place my stops and let the market “take me out.” (more…)

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Thought of the Day (April 18, 2010)

What are the personality traits of a successful trader? In outward style, there seem to be two opposites. One is quiet, reserved, and not normally noticed at a gathering. The other is an extrovert, flamboyant, fun-loving eccentric: something of a renegade. But inwardly, they are alike.

In college both types spent a lot of time at extracurricular interests, and both had irregular grades – A’s in some subjects, and C’s in others. Usually they are neither loved nor hated., and they adapt to new people and events with ease. They are extremely determined and extremely individual, never asking for favors or help. They may ask your opinion and read many forecasters’ views, but rarely act on anything but their own decisions.

They are honest to the bone, living by their own wits and courage. Some are vocal and curse at losses or themselves, and sometimes yell and scream at executions; but generally, this is just an outlet for tension. All view profits and losses as their own responsibility, not anyone else’s problem. The best ones are usually internal; they hold hurts within and force a smile when taking losses. Most pros talk about their losses, not their profits. They brag not about their winners, but how they lost.

– Victor Sperandeo, Principles of Professional Speculation

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Thought of the Day (April 17, 2010)

One of the things I did that worked in those early days was analyzing every single trade I made. Every day, I made copies of my cards and reviewed them at home. Every trader is going to have tons of winners and losers. You need to determine why the winners are winners and the losers are losers. Once you can figure that out, you can become more selective in your trading and avoid those trades that are more likely to be losers.

– Randy McKay, The New Market Wizards by Jack Schwager

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Tradecraft – The 80/20 Rule

ONE OF THE MOST influential — though seldom mentioned — economists of the 20th century was Vilfredo Pareto, an Italian who in 1906 developed a simple mathematical formula now widely known as the 80/20 rule. Although other scholars have subsequently refined it, the basic idea remains the same: In almost all cases, the vast majority of the results are created by a small number of causes.

Although it’s most commonly applied to sales and management issues, the 80/20 rule applies to trading quite well. Despite the high premium often placed on being a good stock picker, I’ve found that the vast majority of profits come from a small handful of trades. And while picking a stock that drops isn’t fun, it’s the cost of doing business and can’t be permitted to derail one’s confidence. The best traders are selective in where they put their money to work. They can’t bet on everything; what counts is focusing on only their top ideas.

As I always point out, the point of investing is to make money. It would be quite convenient if every investment rose a comfortable 10% — but in reality, it’s always a small handful of big winners that account for the majority of a portfolio’s overall return. (more…)

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