MORE THAN A good broker or high-speed quotes, more than a hot stock pick or an inside tip, the biggest and most influential asset a trader has is a clearly defined strategy. That is, a simple, no-nonsense way of focusing on what counts most in the markets: allocating assets and structuring a portfolio.

Market strategy, like a Hollywood pitch, can be boiled down to a few simple sentences: “Heavy into Internet stocks with some newer positions in big drugs, all with tight stops;” or, “Buying munis while holding cash and a few focused hard-asset plays.” The strategy itself, however, is less relevant than having one in the first place.

Much to the chagrin of the well-educated economist or Armani-clad analyst, a strategy will often employ seemingly incompatible ideas that, in theory, shouldn’t work together. For example, at various times over the past few years, bonds have risen with gold, stocks and floating-rate funds. These are combinations that on the surface don’t seem to make much sense. (more…)

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Tradecraft – The Wall Street Rodeo

JUST LIKE THE animal for which it’s named, a real bull market will do its darndest to shake anybody off its back. And although the corner of Wall and Broad isn’t a stop on the rodeo circuit just yet, the concept of bull riding is the same nevertheless: Get on and hang on for as long as possible. But as every cowboy can attest, investors should be prepared for the inevitable fall as well. Lord knows we’ll all get bucked off eventually.

So whether it’s hard assets or international stocks, I start with the mentality that in my portfolio, nothing is too sacred to sell. Some people fall in love with favorite holdings, but for me stocks are just pieces of paper. When a bull kicks me off its back, my focus isn’t to avoid a fall but a broken neck. And regardless of whether I’m selling at a profit or a loss, the challenge is to do it in the most strategic way the market will allow.

As even a novice investor will attest, buying a stock is easy; it’s selling that’s undoubtedly the much harder trade. As regular readers know, I’ve long advocated the use of stop-loss orders, set below the current market price, as the best method for getting out. Investors use a percentage decline or place the stops below a particular level of support. Of course, these techniques work only if investors are disciplined enough to follow them. Sell-stops are an effective way of preserving a position while at the same time reducing risk. I don’t sell for the heck of it, but place my stops and let the market “take me out.” (more…)

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Tradecraft – The 80/20 Rule

ONE OF THE MOST influential — though seldom mentioned — economists of the 20th century was Vilfredo Pareto, an Italian who in 1906 developed a simple mathematical formula now widely known as the 80/20 rule. Although other scholars have subsequently refined it, the basic idea remains the same: In almost all cases, the vast majority of the results are created by a small number of causes.

Although it’s most commonly applied to sales and management issues, the 80/20 rule applies to trading quite well. Despite the high premium often placed on being a good stock picker, I’ve found that the vast majority of profits come from a small handful of trades. And while picking a stock that drops isn’t fun, it’s the cost of doing business and can’t be permitted to derail one’s confidence. The best traders are selective in where they put their money to work. They can’t bet on everything; what counts is focusing on only their top ideas.

As I always point out, the point of investing is to make money. It would be quite convenient if every investment rose a comfortable 10% — but in reality, it’s always a small handful of big winners that account for the majority of a portfolio’s overall return. (more…)

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Tradecraft – Seize the Day

THERE ARE A FEW brief moments in this world when basic and fundamental change occurs right in front of one’s eyes. At the precise moment when night turns to morning, winter turns to spring and a newborn baby first opens his eyes, there’s nothing more holy or full of life.

In the market, it’s during those infrequent and all-too-fleeting moments of change when one has the best opportunity to make a buck. And although the big moves take time, there’s no denying that it’s early in the trade — before the news breaks, the herd shows up and the liquidity starts washing in — when the real gravy is made.

As usual, what drives my focus is price action. As I often suggest, the best indicator of the market is the market, and for a stock to succeed over the “long haul,” it must first begin by working in the here and now. Because trading is first and foremost an exercise in observation, the best way to catch trends early is to watch the market, not the headlines or business TV. (more…)

Tradecraft – Corralling the Herd

THE KEY TO INVESTING is to not lose money. If you focus on avoiding the losses, the gains tend to take care of themselves. While there isn’t a strategy that always works in the market, there is one I know that always fails. It doesn’t involve tracking a stock, but rather a group that never seems to get it right.

As regular Tradecraft readers know, few things are as financially dangerous as following the uninformed mass of investors to which we often refer to as “the herd.” While nobody makes money all the time, the herd has an undeniable knack for losing it again and again, in almost every conceivable fashion. Following the herd’s movements, therefore, is a worthwhile endeavor. The more I study what the herd is doing, the better I’m able to avoid following in its footsteps.

When it comes to investing, what matters isn’t what we say, but what we do. So it’s not too surprising that, when opining on the market, the herd tends to talk in generalities or about things that have no impact on the bottom line. When you’re uninformed and just part of the pack, it’s a lot more convenient to talk about the economy, Bush, jobs or some other piece of non-tradable minutia than actually commenting on what’s happening in the market itself. When you hear someone talking loud (but saying nothing), chances are they’re part of the herd. (more…)

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Tradecraft – A New Year’s Resolution

AS A COLLEGE STUDENT, I’d party until the wee hours yet still show up sharp for class the next morning. As a full-fledged adult, however, my body is slightly less resilient. These days if I’m not in bed by Leno, then I’m grumpy and yawning for a week.

The same analogy holds true in the market. Because no matter what happens with Saddam, interest rates or the election, a year from now, I promise you, we’ll all be another year older. And just as our bodies become more fragile with age, so should our tolerance for risk. We can’t be college kids forever.

The only smart risks are the ones we can afford to take. And when it comes to our portfolios, the most fundamental issue boils down to allocation — that is, what percentage of our account we pledge to any particular asset class. Students of the market are often taught the old rule of thumb that one should subtract his age from 100, with the remaining sum being the percentage of the portfolio that should be in stocks. A 40-year-old, for example, would be 60% stocks, 40% bonds and cash. (more…)

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Tradecraft – Listen Up!

I DON’T NEED to see my stocks recommended in print or talked about on message boards to be confident about their prospects. If I’m bullish on XYZ, it doesn’t matter if the analysts haven’t heard of it or if my talk-show colleagues think I’m insane for venturing off the well-beaten path of the S&P 500.

The name of the game is making money, not making friends. So when I pick stocks in this column or on TV, I don’t need email kudos or pats on the back to reinforce my professional self-esteem. When something in my portfolio is working, the profits are my payoff.

The reason it’s called speculation is that, when it comes to the market, there’s no sure thing. Yet most people won’t put money in a stock unless they have a perfectly clear reason for doing so such as an upgrade, breaking news or investment hook. But that need for certainty and assurance often trips us up, because by the time the story is out, the stock’s real move is usually over. (more…)

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