Tradecraft – The Loser’s Racket

REGARDLESS OF YOUR LEVEL OF skill, education or experience, invest in the markets long enough and you’ll eventually encounter a losing streak that makes you wish the opening bell never rang. Speculation is not a savings account, and losses, oftentimes serious ones, will for a time plague even the most pedigreed of portfolios.

So although Bill Miller is still heralded as one of the best portfolio managers around, he too was pummeled by the brutal bear market. An investment in his Legg Mason Value Trust (LMVTX) dropped some 40% from 2000 through early 2003.

Or take legendary portfolio manager Stanley Druckenmiller. In early 2000 he left George Soros’ Quantum Fund after bad technology bets erased almost $3 billion — more than 20% of the hedge fund’s assets. (more…)

Tradecraft – The Honeymoon Ends

TO MAKE MONEY IN THE markets, you’ve got to have an imagination and a willingness to picture a world totally different from the one you now inhabit. Traders are naturally prone to fantasy, always forecasting how things will look a few minutes, weeks or months down the road.

Yet market fantasies can ruin a portfolio when allowed to overwhelm a trader’s rational faculties. Following a script can be dangerous. What’s important is to have a general belief of how a market might move, not a detailed description of XYZ Inc.’s every tick.

For example, oftentimes people are intent on earning a profit in a specific stock. They’re not merely interested in XYZ — they’re downright married to it. They construct detailed industry analysis and earnings forecasts. They read countless research reports and newsletter recommendations. They draw trendlines, set price targets and take up shop as resident know-it-alls on the Internet message boards. XYZ is their world, till death do they part. (more…)

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Tradecraft – No Nudes Is Good News

FROM A STABLE BLUE CHIP to the most speculative small cap, we’re all quite comfortable with the notion that, in the market, you’re never on the hook for more than you put in. Whether you buy 100 shares of DTE Energy (DTE) or the bonds of some near-bankrupt airline, your risk is defined by your investment. Buy $5,000 worth of stock, and the most you can lose is $5,000.

While the losses are limited, the potential gains aren’t. Stocks and bonds are worth whatever someone is willing to pay. So when you buy XYZ, there’s no telling how high it might fly.

The other basic method of making money, however, is what I call the insurance format, an approach best exemplified by the options-writing strategies that have become increasingly popular with individual investors. In this case, a person is paid essentially to assume the risk of ownership without actually owning the security in question. The upside is limited, but the loss isn’t. (more…)

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Tradecraft – Hope Is a Four-Letter Word

IN THE MARKET, IT’S crucial to not only analyze a stock but the public’s prevailing attitude toward it as well. Whether semiconductors or silver, big blue chips or miniscule micro caps, it’s no matter. Savvy investors should always be short hope and long doubt. While hope plays well in the movies, in your portfolio it’s an expensive emotion that needs to be avoided.

Why is hope so dangerous? Let’s begin with the reality that hopeful investors have already bought XYZ. They’re not sidelined money waiting to come into the market, but capital that’s already at work. After going ahead and buying the stock, these investors hope for the best. There’s not much more they feel they can do.

Hopeful investors are almost frighteningly knowledgeable about XYZ, having scoured the company’s Web site, SEC filings and press releases for any kernel of good news. At a moment’s notice, they’re ready with ambitious projections about how many routers Cisco Systems (CSCO) is going to sell or how many listeners Howard Stern will bring to Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI). They don’t just invest in a stock, they become evangelists for it. (more…)

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WHEN I HEAR PEOPLE bad-mouth Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) for its supposedly evil business practices, I wonder if they have any appreciation at all for just how difficult it is to create even one job, let alone 1.5 million. The ability for a business to be able to cut paychecks week after week, even during the tough months, is an achievement few seem to acknowledge.

Traders can appreciate it, however, because in the markets there’s no such thing as a regular paycheck. Just as most retailers’ profits are seasonal, a trader’s income is highly erratic. The most common profile consists of long stretches of small losses punctuated by a few impressive scores. And because it’s usually feast or famine, the ability to structure a portfolio toward more-consistent returns is a helpful technique that traders of all levels should employ.

Many traders aim to build consistency into their portfolios in exactly the wrong way: by overtrading. Strategies such as rolling stocks or short-term scalping only contribute to the fallacy that the market can function as a sort of endless ATM, where all you have to do each day is show up to make a withdrawal. And while there are dozens of services that promise you a handful of sure stock picks each day, it’s a loser’s game that serious investors should avoid playing. (more…)

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Tradecraft – A Nation of Laws

LISTEN TO PRESIDENT BUSH AND others in the administration, and you might think that American values are rooted in religion — that liberty is “God’s gift” and that America’s core ideology is one of theocracy.

Other leaders, especially those on the political left, suggest America is founded on the premise of altruistic self-sacrifice. For these folks, no tax or government control is too onerous to provide every citizen with their supposed birthright of housing, health care, education or whichever campaign promise scores high with the focus groups that week.

Lost among the religious right or liberal left is a basic understanding of what core American principles are. Considering that we’re overseeing the process of a new democracy being launched in Iraq, it might serve us to remember what’s at the heart of our own. (more…)

I KEEP A PILE OF worthless stock certificates on my desk to remind myself at all times that investments are tools to make money — nothing more. They’re not your friend, your lover or your family. Stocks are simply pieces of paper, of which, no matter how much research we’ve done or how much we like the stock, it’s our job to sell. In my portfolio nothing is sacred. Even favored names can quickly get kicked to the curb.

As regular readers know, it’s my belief that the best way to dump stocks is via the use of stop-loss orders, a basic investment technique I’ve been espousing long before Martha Stewart made it famous. To review, a stop-loss order is placed below a stock’s current market price. Should the specified price (or anything below) get traded, the order is immediately executed at the market’s best available bid.

Regardless of whether you take a fundamental or technical approach, stop-loss orders should be an integral part of every trading discipline. They succeed simply by design: By placing one, you’re quietly acknowledging that, yes, even great stock picks can end up as lousy trades. (more…)

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