Thought of the Day (April 30, 2010)

Emotional decisions are lethal in the markets. You can see a good model of emotional trading by going to a racetrack, turning around, and watching the humans instead of the horses. Gamblers stomp their feet, jump up and down, and yell at horses and jockeys. Thousands of people act out their emotions. Winners embrace and losers tear up their tickets in disgust. The joy, the pain, and the intensity of wishful thinking are caricatures of what happens in the markets. A cool handicapper who tries to make a living at the track does not get excited, yell, or bet the bulk of his roll on any race.

– Alexander Elder, Trading for a Living

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THE MOST DIFFICULT part of trading isn’t picking stocks, taking losses or even dealing with the IRS. Without question, the toughest part of managing money is knowing when to sit tight — then actually being able to pull it off.

In this game, less is often more. I don’t care how cheap the commission rate is. Trading isn’t like sit-ups: You can’t just do a few extra reps and expect to get a better result. Indeed, in any number of situations, the best move to make is no move at all.

Yet doing nothing is harder than it looks. There’s something about money flying around that prompts an inescapable, almost chemical urge to act — to buy, to sell, to short, to cover, to write options — whether you actually need to or not. And it’s that unfortunate, almost druglike instinct that prompts many to hang themselves with foolish decisions right from the start. Yep, trading is easy; it’s the sitting tight that’s really tough.

Let’s say you did the research, bought a stock and, low and behold, find yourself with a winner on your hands. You jumped into XYZ at $30, and now it’s trading a solid five points higher. Human nature, with which we all must contend, prompts you to sell the stock, grab the profit and move on to another name. It’s a self-destructive instinct that disciplined traders know how to squelch. (more…)

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Thought of the Day (April 29, 2010)

Changing yourself as a trader requires the recognition that you are every bit as patterned as the markets you’re trading. Change begins with repeated and intensive self-observation. Keep a journal of all trades, the reasons you made the trades, the states you were in while placing the trades, and the outcomes of those trades. Over time, isolate the trades that went awry and the patterns common to those. Then isolate the successful trades and their shared ingredients.

Imagine that, trapped within you, is a self-destructive trader about to go bankrupt and a master trader poised on the brink of success. How does that self-destructive trader make decisions? How does that master trader operate? Once you can answer those questions, you are better positioned to do less of what doesn’t work and more of what will bring you to your goals.

– Brett Steenbarger, The Psychology of Trading

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Thought of the Day (April 28, 2010)

The market is never wrong in what it does; it just is. Therefore, you as an individual trader interacting with the market — first as an observer to perceive opportunity, then as a participant executing a trade, contributing to the overall market behavior — have to confront an environment where only you can be wrong, and it’s never the other way around. As a trader, you have to decide what is more important — being right or making money — because the two are not always compatible or consistent with one another.

– Mark Douglas, The Disciplined Trader

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Tradecraft – Reality Bites

FORGET “AMERICAN IDOL,” “The Bachelor” or “The Swan.” The ultimate reality show is playing out in every investor’s portfolio. And while I’m not too sure about “The Apprentice,” in my world the emotion is unscripted; the tears are real. I’m a professional money manager, but I’m also a human being. That means when I lose money, it hurts.

So while I didn’t give a damn about the Super Bowl or March Madness, I readily admit that some recent market action has captured my full and undivided attention. And given some of my recently favored sectors, like REITs for one, it has also humbled me a bit. I’m nursing both a bruised ego and a bruised bottom line.

Folks, I’m doing this right along with all of you. And even my years of experience as everything from runner to floor trader to hedge-fund manager don’t keep me from losing money from time to time. One’s know-how and profitability are most certainly correlated, but over fiscal quarters and years, not weeks or months. (more…)

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Thought of the Day (April 27, 2010)

Chart theories often have an insidious habit of working almost perfectly for the beginner, and in such case he must guard himself carefully against over-confidence and thinking he has found a sure and easy path to rapid riches. In technical science he will find a trustworthy and profitable friend, but he will not find a substitute for study, common sense, and the other virtues of the consistently successful operator.

– Richard Schabacker, Stock Market Profits

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Tradecraft – Got Time?

ALTHOUGH I’VE been talking about the bull market in hard assets for the better part of three years, most nonmarket types are just beginning to catch on to the trend. Let’s face it, folks: We live in inflationary times. A hundred bucks ain’t what it used to be.

In recent months, commodities have risen substantially across the board, with everything from silver to soybeans posting dramatic gains. What has received the most attention, for obvious reasons, has been the rise in crude oil. Higher crude means higher gasoline prices at the pump. We’re a nation of drivers. Gasoline is one commodity most of us buy regularly.

Not surprisingly, politicians and journalists have all weighed in on how to deal with the “high” cost of gasoline. Thankfully, they’re not managing your portfolio. Because from a trader’s perspective, thinking of markets as “high” or “low” is a linguistic trap that should be avoided.

As I often point out, a real bull market is built on doubt. And when you get right down to it, nothing is more doubtful than describing a market as being high. There’s a quiet, condescending, passive-aggressiveness about it that seems to suggest that the real move has already been made. After all, if investing is about buying low and selling high, who in their right mind would buy high? (more…)

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