Tradecraft – Don’t Buy Me

“IT’S NOT WHETHER you win or lose, but how you play the game.”

Most of us understand that old saw to be about style — about winning or losing with equal aplomb and sportsmanship. But to a trader, it’s a lesson in technique. It reminds us that whether you win or lose is a function of how you play the game.

I can’t say it often enough: It isn’t what you trade, but how you trade, that ultimately determines success. And nowhere can this be seen better than in the case of energy giant Enron (ENE), whose spectacular 99% decline has left more than a few investors out in the cold.

Most pundits would suggest that Enron’s woes first became apparent in mid-October, when the company took a $1 billion charge and reduced its shareholders’ equity by $1.2 billion as a result of a number of questionable off-balance-sheet partnerships. But from a trader’s perspective, the problems for Enron and its investors actually started much earlier. While Enron’s collapse was stunning, good trading technique could’ve limited the damage to investors’ bottom line.

Many are now blaming the company for their losses, but regardless of any alleged corporate wrongdoing, following a trading discipline would’ve prevented a position in Enron from hurting your portfolio too badly. That’s the essence of investing. You win a few, you lose a few, you keep on fighting. (more…)

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Thought of the Day (November 10, 2009)

A man may beat a stock or group at a certain time, but no man living can beat the stock market.

– Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

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Tradecraft – Here’s to the Other Heroes

TRADING IS NEVER PERSONAL. Stocks are just pieces of paper. But that doesn’t mean I don’t have strong opinions about the businesses those stocks represent. You can love a company but hate its stock, and vice versa. For example, I think AOL Time Warner (AOL) (now trading at around $37) is a $25 stock in waiting, yet I also think founder and Chief Executive Steve Case is a terrific hero for whom we should be thankful. Apparently, not many agree.

Most people would agree that America’s prosperity is the product of capitalist free enterprise, but few actually acknowledge the capitalist heroes who make that prosperity happen. So in the midst of giving thanks this holiday season — and at a time when we’ve all been thinking about the meaning of heroism — I’m giving my props to the men and woman who run American business, big and small, because they mostly run it very well and for the benefit of all of us.

When an August Harris Poll asked people to list others they thought of as heroes, the most cited names belonged to figures from the worlds of religion, politics or entertainment. While there probably isn’t an individual on this earth who hasn’t benefited from American business, from Henry Ford to Hank Greenberg, Andy Grove to Adolphus Busch, no business leader made the cut. (more…)

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Thought of the Day (November 9, 2009)

The trend is your friend until it bends near the end.

– Ed Seykota

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Thought of the Day (November 8, 2009)

The only way to combat the negative effects of losses, interference from others, and poor trading signals is by the maintenance of a positive attitude regardless of how bad things may seem.

– Jake Bernstein, The Investor’s Quotient

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Thought of the Day (November 7, 2009)

Trends tend to persist, until they don’t. And that’s why God made stops.

– Frank Gretz

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Tradecraft – The High Life

WHEN IT COMES to the stock market, I must confess to being a bit of an addict. Not 15 minutes pass without my having intimate knowledge of the Standard & Poor’s 500′s latest movements, however tiny they may be.

The market is more than just an occupation — it’s a stimulant. All the research reports, analysis and squawk aside, the truth is that anything can happen between 9:30 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. ET. We gurus blab about Fed policy and price/book ratios to legitimize what most of us are embarrassed to admit: The stock market is little more than a tremendously exciting, highly addictive, real-time, real-money global casino.

But while gambling oops, I mean trading can provide a “high,” its druglike qualities can be quite dangerous. Just like an addict who needs his fix, an undisciplined trader will go to painful lengths to score one big play. He may refuse to take a loss, trade too big, or choose a position that doesn’t offer an attractive risk-reward proposition. (more…)

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