Thought of the Day (November 30, 2009)

Market information is only threatening if you are expecting the market to do something for you. Otherwise, if you don’t expect the market to make you right, you have no reason to be afraid of being wrong. If you don’t expect the market to keep going in your direction indefinitely, there is no reason to leave money on the table. Finally, if you don’t to expect to be able to take advantage of every opportunity just because you perceived it and it presented itself, you have no reason to be afraid of missing out.

– Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone

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Tradecraft – Stereotypes and Stockpicking

CONVENTIONAL THINKING SUGGESTS that the best decisions are the unbiased ones. But the fact is that we’re genetically rigged to make assumptions. We didn’t come out of the womb ready to operate as adults. Knowledge is learned, and our opinions on everything from sex to Cisco (CSCO) are simply the sum of our experiences. If you’re alive, conscious and have a brain you’ve got a bias.

And so it goes in trading. Some people are biased toward playing stocks from the long side. Others seem to be perennially short. Should I buy or sell Oracle (ORCL)? Or perhaps do nothing at all? Even nondecision is an active choice governed by your personal market biases.

What distinguishes the successful trader is that he understands his biases and knows how to overcome the ones that harm the bottom line. To help you do the same, here’s a look at the three biggest sources of trading bias.

The most common way biases are formed is through *previous experiences*. As a kid, it only took one serious burn for me to realize that touching fire wasn’t a very pleasant thing. More recently, we all learned that companies with a dot-com suffix have a strange tendency to deflate, decline or just disappear altogether. (more…)

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Thought of the Day (November 29, 2009)

There is a definite cost of trading. The market maker has to get his edge. Your broker has to get her cost. And your profit is what remains, if anything, when these costs are deducted.

The cost per trade is really a part of the expectancy equation, but it is so important that I wanted to add a little more about cost reduction. The fewer trades you make, the less the cost per trade becomes a factor. Many long-term trend followers spend little time thinking about their trading cost. because it is so insignificant compared with the potential profit to be made. For example, if you are thinking about making $5,000 per trade, then you probably are not paying much attention to trade costs of $100.

However, if you are short term in your orientation and make lots of trades, then trade cost is a lot bigger consideration for you– at least it should be. For example, if your average profit per trade was $50, then you would pay much more attention to a $100 trading cost.

– Alexander Elder, Trading for a Living

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Thought of the Day (November 28, 2009)

Certainly one could argue that some traders lose because they don’t understand enough about the markets and therefore they usually pick the wrong trades. As reasonable as this may sound, it has been my experience that traders with losing attitudes pick the wrong trades regardless of how much they know about the markets. In any case, the result is the same– they lose. On the other hand, traders with winning attitudes who know virtually nothing about the markets can pick winners; and if they know a lot about the markets, they can pick even more winners.

If you want to change your experience of the markets from fearful to confident, if you want to change your results from an erratic equity curve to a steadily rising one, the first step is to embrace the responsibility and stop expecting the market to give you anything or do anything for you. If you resolve from this point forward to do it all yourself, the market can no longer be your opponent. If you stop fighting the market, which in effect means you stop fighting yourself, you’ll be amazed at how quickly you will recognize exactly what you need to learn, and how quickly you will learn it. Taking responsibility is the cornerstone of a winning attitude.

– Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone

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Thought of the Day (November 27, 2009)

Indeed, the market often does look easy in hindsight. Tops are made as everyone rushes to buy what has been profitable already. At that point, to the astonishment of those who’ve missed it, the cliche becomes: “The easy money has already been made.” But while it is happening no one realizes it; investors are caught up in the classic “wall of worry” instead. It never can be easy because the rule of the market is that you have to act before you know enough. Because it is a process, there is no one moment, or single point, at which one can make an obvious “sure” decision.

– Justin Mamis, The Nature of Risk

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