Tradecraft – Building Pyramids

LET’S SAY YOU want to buy XYZ. Maybe it announced better-than-expected earnings or crossed a key moving average. Perhaps you are watching a similar company or index move and expect XYZ to follow along. Maybe you used the company’s products or read some compelling research. As Rod Stewart sang, we all need a reason to believe. Whatever your reason, you believe. Fine. Two sides make a market, and nobody knows the future. If you are bullish on XYZ, then it’s time to buy XYZ.

What messes most people up isn’t what to buy, but how. Having a good investment idea is a start, but putting it into practice is another thing altogether. And while a sound trading technique won’t prevent you from losing money, it will keep your losses small and the majority of your capital focused on the most profitable ideas. No trade is without risk, but the difference between risk and recklessness is proper procedure. Trading is like any fine art: There is such thing as objectively good form.

The oldest — and the only surviving — of the ancient Seven Wonders of the World are the Egyptian Pyramids. Their longevity is due, in part, to inherently strong design. The majority of a pyramid’s mass rests at its base, closest to the ground. A much smaller portion of the material is used near the top. The setup creates a uniquely stable architectural footprint. (more…)

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Thought of the Day (September 15, 2009)

If you want to improve your trading, what you need to do is very simple. Before you enter any trade, think that you will have to explain this trade to the world in a case study format. You have to explain the reason for entry, your risk management guidelines, and why you exited the trade. Trade as if the world was standing behind your shoulders.

– Tony Oz, The Stock Trader

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Thought of the Day (September 14, 2009)

A stock market operator must be as hard-boiled as a five-minute egg; cold-blooded as a fish; deaf to all gossip; blind to news; and dumb as a door knob when it comes to discussing the market with others.

– Richard Wyckoff

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Tradecraft – Hedge Funds for the Masses!

IN A FREE COUNTRY with free markets, we must each make our own decisions about how to invest our assets. From real estate to Research In Motion (RIMM), Home Depot (HD) to hedge funds, there are many choices for those of us with an open mind and a penchant for profit. The ultimate arbiter isn’t research reports, but the bottom line. So whether you watch the market minute by minute or never check your statement, make no mistake: We are all portfolio managers.

As has been widely noted, the biggest long-term determinant of a portfolio’s performance isn’t security selection or market timing, but asset allocation. And while hedge funds like mine have been regulated out of reach for most investors, a hedge-fund-style philosophy of asset allocation is an option I think you should investigate.

First, let’s define some terms. Like mutual funds, hedge funds are simply investment pools managed by a portfolio manager. While most people assume that hedge funds trade frequently and take big bets on financial esoterica like derivatives, the main difference is that hedge funds have tremendous flexibility in how they can allocate their assets. Hedge funds can invest in almost anything. They can sell short, use options and futures, and even take positions in illiquid securities like real estate and collectables. (more…)

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Thought of the Day (September 13, 2009)

One of the basic problems that most traders face is dealing with risk. For example, two primary rules to successful speculative trading are: Cut your losses short and let your profits run. Most people cannot deal with those two rules. For example, if making money is important to you — as it is to most people who play investment games — then you will probably have trouble taking small losses. As a result, small losses turn into moderate losses, which are even harder to take. Finally, the moderate losses turn into big losses, which you are forced to take — all because it was so hard to take a small loss. Similarly, when people have a profit, they want to take it right away. They think, “I’d better take this now before it gets away.” The bigger the profit becomes, the harder it is to resist the temptation to take it now. The simple truth is that most people are risk – aversive in the realm of profits — they prefer a sure, smaller gain to a wise gamble for a larger gain — and risk seeking in the realm of losses — they prefer an unwise gamble to a sure loss. As a result, most people tend to do the opposite of what is required for success. They cut their profits short and let their losses run.

– Van Tharp, Market Wizards by Jack Schwager

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Thought of the Day (September 12, 2009)

Each market day spawns excellent trading patterns. But many skilled participants still wash out through bad selection and poor timing. Why doesn’t their experience save them from ultimate failure? The answer holds great wisdom for every trading aspirant. Simply put, long-term survival depends much more on personal discipline than on market knowledge.

– Alan Farley, The Master Swing Trader

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Thought of the Day (September 11, 2009)

I believe in the sun even when it is not shining. I believe in love even when I cannot feel it. I believe in God even when he is silent.

– Written on a wall at Auschwitz concentration camp during WWII

 
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