Thought of the Day (September 21, 2009)

When we become quite familiar with stock charts we shall find ourselves looking for various pictures and patterns formed by our charts, but if we are to be complete masters of our study and get the fullest benefits from our own analysis it is important that we do not entirely lose sight of the fundamental basis for the formation of those pictures and patterns.

That fundamental basis is in actual stock market trading, and actual stock market trading is the result of individual actions by many thousands of people, based in turn upon their own hopes, fears, anticipations, knowledge or lack of knowledge, necessities and plans. It is the danger of losing sight of this human element in stock charts that we must guard against, and since this human element is basic it may be wise to fit it into the foundations of our study at the very outset.

– Richard Schabacker, Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits

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Thought of the Day (September 20, 2009)

It’s when you’re winning that your are most susceptible to making a mistake, overtrading, putting on too large a position, violating your rules, or generally operating as if no prudent boundaries on your behaviour are necessary. You may even go to the extreme of thinking you are the market. However, the market rarely agrees, and when it disagrees, you’ll get hurt. The loss and the emotional pain are usually significant. You will experience a boom, followed by the inevitable bust.

– Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone

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Thought of the Day (September 19, 2009)

Lesson number one is consistency! For over 25 years, I have been consistent in my approach and discipline. This is so very important. Don’t be a fundamentalist one week, and a technician the next. And don’t follow indicator A one month and switch to indicator B the next. Find a good method, be disciplined, and stick with it. If it doesn’t regularly beat the market, then get a new method. But be absolutely disciplined and don’t ever abandon a successful method because you think this time things are different.

– Stan Weinstein, Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

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Thought of the Day (September 18, 2009)

Be Flexible. My philosophy has necessarily changed form time to time because of events and because of mistakes. My views change as economic, political, and technological changes occur both on and now off our planet. It is imperative that you be willing to change your thoughts to meet new conditions.

– Charles Ellis, The Investor’s Anthology

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Tradecraft – The Diversification Delusion

LIKE A WARM BATH or high thread-count sheets, nothing feels quite as comfortable as money in the bank. And with the major equity indexes down year-to-date, I’m surely not the only one who finds a sweet satisfaction in watching interest payments tumble in each month to a plain old money-market account. Cash (and cash equivalents like money-market accounts, certificates of deposit or Treasury bills) are often referred to as earning the “risk-free” rate for obvious reasons. Cash provides a predictable, but paltry, return. And while cash deserves a place in everyone’s portfolio, you can’t just hide in a money market all your life. There are other ways of dealing with risk besides hiding your money under the mattress. The name of the game is wealth creation: In order to make some money, you’ve got to make some moves.

And while it took a 68% drop in the Nasdaq to finally sink in, most investors are now realizing that the most effective way of reducing risk in their portfolio is by diversifying among various types of assets. Diversification lowers a portfolio’s volatility and can even enhance returns. And while index funds that track the S&P 500 give the illusion of diversification, because they are weighted by market capitalization they are essentially focused on large-cap stocks. Owning Cisco Systems (CSCO), Intel (INTC), General Electric (GE) and an index fund exposes you to as much diversity as a potluck dinner at David Duke’s house. (more…)

Thought of the Day (September 17, 2009)

Trading is so exciting that it often makes amateurs feel high. A trade for them is like a ticket to a movie or a professional ballgame. Trading is a much more expensive entertainment than the cinema.

Nobody can get high and make money at the same time. Emotional trading is the enemy of success. Greed and fear are bound to destroy a trader. You need to use your intellect instead of trading on gut feeling.

A trader who gets giddy from profits is like a lawyer who starts counting cash in the middle of a trial. A trader who gets upset at losses is like a surgeon who faints at the sight of blood. A real professional does not get too excited about wins or losses.

The goal of a successful professional in any field is to reach his personal best — to become the best doctor, the best lawyer, or the best trader. Money flows to them almost as an afterthought. You need to concentrate on trading right —and not on the money. Each trade has to be handled like a surgical procedure —seriously, soberly, without sloppiness or shortcuts.

– Alexander Elder, Trading for a Living

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Thought of the Day (September 16, 2009)

I have two basic rules about winning in trading as well as in life: (1) If you don’t bet, you can’t win. (2) If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet.

– Larry Hite, Market Wizards by Jack Schwager

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